The mockery weapon.

California Governor Gavin Newsom is not duplicating President Trump.

He is mocking Trump.

Donald Trump wants to be feared. He wants liberal tears and stories of impending doom. Those validate his power. That persona -- that brand -- is undermined when a taller, better looking, younger California governor sneers at Trump and points out Trump's foolishness. The trouble with satire is that some people don't "get it." And some people get it. but pretend they don't.  But Newsom's message is clear: He is not intimidated by Trump. And he is not "going low." He is holding Trump up to ridicule.

Donald Trump's communication has worked for him. He says outrageous, hyperbolic things, both verbally and in text messages to social media, often in ALL CAPS. They make news because they are so extreme in content and tone. Trump supporters consider them Trump "truths," written on his own social media site "Truth Social." Trump critics think he looks mentally ill -- manic -- and generally unhinged.

Gavin Newsom's mimicking Trump does the work that good parody does. It points out the ridiculousness of the target.  Newsom's press office and his allies are putting up images like these, mocking Trump's grandiosity and proud use of images of himself as a heroic Rambo-figure anointed by God:

Newsom duplicates Trump's ALL CAP pronouncements, and Trump's new signature line, "Thank you for your attention to this matter."

Social media trolls are adding their voices. Exaggeration become hyper-exaggeration becomes ridiculous, at which point even the most gullible person understands that Trump is being mocked.

And this:

The Fox media universe is unhappy with it, complaining that Newsom is undignified and unkind, complaints that spread the reach of the mockery.

Newsom described his intent:

I hope it’s a wake-up call for the president of the United States. I’m sort of following his example. If you’ve got issues with what I’m putting out, you sure as hell should have concerns about what he’s putting out as president. . . .  I think the deeper question is how have we allowed the normalization of his tweets, Truth Social posts over the course of the last many years, to go without similar scrutiny and notice.

The real intent is to show that Democrats have a voice willing to stand up to Trump. Someone strong. Someone clear-headed and reasonable. Someone worthy of being America's next president. 

[Note: To get daily delivery of this blog to your email go to: https://petersage.substack.com. Subscribe. Don't pay. The blog is free and always will be.]

Models and Millionaires.

Hoist by his own petard.

Turnabout is fair play.

The karma boomerang.

Trump is the victim of conspiratorial suspicion. He set a fire, and now he is being burned by it.

Donald Trump was involved with a business adjacent to -- but not necessarily criminally engaged with -- sexual favors with very young women. He owned Trump Model Management for 18 years, finally shutting it down in 2017 after being elected president.

Trump has long been seen as oddly incautious in his remarks about his attraction to young women. He integrated those comments into his overall brand as an alpha-male with appetites. He was a winner in sex, business, politics, and statecraft.

Trump dealt with suspicion about himself with diversionary attacks on Democrats. Whatabout Bill Clinton? Whatabout Bill Gates? Whatabout Larry Summers?  He was just asking questions.  

This tactic worked well with GOP voters. Trump "just asking questions," as a form of accusation, and forever failing to be satisfied with the answer, convinced most Republicans that Barack Obama was born not in Hawaii, where official records were created and stored. It elevated Trump into a national political figure popular with Republicans.

Trump's supporters developed a taste for suspicion. Trump is now the victim of it. Why the Epstein coverup? What is the real story? That suspicion is fed by revelations of court filings by accusers naming Trump. 

The accusations are in the public record. Was the underlying conduct they describe real? Who knows? Maybe. They could be. They raise questions. So why the coverup?

The Katie Johnson filing

And this one, with accusations of vaginal and anal rape:

The Jane Doe filing

Rick Millward insists he is not conspiracy-minded himself, but he says that his social media algorithmic feed keeps sending him examples of suspicious and suggestive connections. Once a person shows an interest in a subject, the algorithm sends more of it. If a Democrat like Millward gets them, then conspiracy-minded MAGA people, with a history of believing conspiracies, must be getting even more of them.

One area of suspicion is Trump's involvement in youth beauty pageants, spa facilities staffed by young women, and Trump's ownership of modeling agencies. People in the MAGA conspiracy circle know all about it because it is popping up on their social media feeds. Rick Millward shared what he has learned. Millward is a musician and songwriter. He created music in Silicon Valley and Nashville before coming to Southern Oregon. His music is available on Spotify and other streaming platforms.

Millward

Guest Post by Rick Millward

Models and Millionaires

Trump and Epstein’s friendship has an aspect that isn’t widely known. They both owned modeling agencies. These agencies recruit young girls with the promise of money and fame, and many of the most well known “supermodels” come from this system. It’s a $13 billion industry that runs the gamut from high fashion to a darker underside that includes sex trafficking and pornography. One of the things sex traffickers do is front their operations with modeling or photography agencies. Ads on Craigslist seeking aspiring models are seen as recruitment tools for pornographers. Of course no reputable company would advertise this way, but gullible young girls see them as an opportunity.

Epstein was financially involved with MC2 Management, whose founder Jean-Luc Brunel committed suicide in a cell in France while facing rape charges. Trump partnered with John Casablancas of Elite Model Management for his “Look of the Year” competition which he judged and hosted at his Plaza Hotel. Another player was Paolo Zampolli of ID Models who managed Melania Trump. Trump himself owned beauty pageants and ran Trump Model Management.

All these men and their businesses have been widely reported on by various sources, and Google searches will bring up these stories. I’m not repeating them here, but simply pointing out that this industry is in the business of recruiting and promoting teenage girls. It’s a world unto itself, populated by the rich and powerful, businessmen, financiers, and politicians who socialize together, often at events where these girls and their managers are in attendance as well.

Epstein’s parties in New York, Florida and at his private island hosted celebrities and the wealthy. The details of these events are likely part of the suppressed documents at the U.S. Department of Justice. The MAGA conspiracy theorists see this as a vast hidden pedophile network and given the history of these companies it’s easy to understand how it might prompt a troubled young man to take a gun to a pizzeria to rescue children he believed were being held there. Wealth, power and sex are intertwined in our media and imaginations, giving us the impression there are rich, debauched men and women who engage in activities that flaunt our social norms and laws. The popular series “Law and Order: SVU” has run for 26 seasons; just one example of our fascination with these deviations, and also why the Epstein story and its secrets demand to be repealed.

I’d also like to point out the courage of the victims. They are survivors who have been silent for years about their abuse. I don’t blame them for this. The price they will pay for speaking out is to live through their trauma again, but now as adults. They are facing unwanted public scrutiny that may well make their coming forward futile. We should believe them and protect them.

[Note: To get daily delivery of this blog to your email go to: https://petersage.substack.com. Subscribe. Don't pay. The blog is free and always will be.]

Washington is worth a Mass

Wall Street Journal opening paragraph:

Rob Sand could almost pass for a Republican: He frequently quotes the Bible, owns two SIG Sauer handguns, goes deer hunting each fall and asks audiences to sing a few verses of “America the Beautiful” at the start of campaign events.

Rob Sand

Rob Sand is running for governor of Iowa.  

Ruben Gallego

Ruben Gallego is a U.S. senator from Arizona.  He told The New York Times that Democrats were focused on pleasing comfortable Americans. Issues like pronouns and green vehicle regulations were not central to the lives of working Americans, especially Hispanics. 

We're more stuck on appeasing a group of people who don't actually represent any constituencies than on taking care of people's real lives,

Every Latino man wants a big-ass truck. There's nothing wrong with that. "You get your troca, start your own job, and you're going to become rich, right?" These are the conversations we should be having. 

Troca is Spanish for pickup truck. 

James Talerico

James Talerico is a state representative in Texas. Talerico has developed a national reputation based on video clips of him challenging Republican policy and policymakers in Texas. He is articulate and earnest -- table stakes for an aspiring politician -- but noteworthy for the direction of his opposition. He supports liberal policies. He is openly Christian and he challenges Republican policy by weighing policies against Christian values. He projects an exceptionally clean cut, good-Christian-man look. He gets rebroadcast and shared on social media, here on Facebook:

Click

Christian nationalists are not interested in legislating Christian values. They are only interested in legislating Christian dominance. Christian nationalism is putting prayer in schools and taking free lunches out.

All three of these men confound the stereotype idea of the modern Democratic politician.  

The Wall Street Journal is an unreliable narrator when it comes to describing Democrats; they are, after all, a conservative, pro-business Rupert Murdoch property. But they get at something true and important about the Democratic brand. The Democratic brand is widely understood to be the party of upscale office workers in coastal cities. The archetype Democrat is a "childless cat lady," in the words of JD Vance. To continue the caricature, she drives an electric car or hybrid, she has an advanced degree in something, she is not a church-goer, and she thinks the most significant issue facing America is climate change. She donates to public radio and television, drinks wine and not beer, and she applauds land acknowledgement statements being read before public meetings. She flies a Rainbow Flag.  I suspect most of my readers will consider that a ridiculously narrow description/caricature of a Democrat, but it would not seem ridiculous to a great many Americans. 

Democratic voters are in a critical period now. They are slowly being introduced to potential leaders of the Democratic party. Somebody will represent the new brand. Gavin Newsom has stepped up. JB Pritzker is slower to the gate, but he is making a move.

Democrats would be well served if they opened their minds to the idea that a Democrat might be a church-going Christian who is proudly patriotic and happy to say that America is a great country without preceding it with a subordinate clause apologizing for its history of racism, imperialism, and ecological degradation. Some values and policies that became standard orthodox thinking for Democrats -- and indeed required beliefs to be a Democrat in good standing -- are have run ahead of public opinion. What works in Bernie Sanders'  Vermont and AOC's Queens district doesn't work in purple American polities. It turns the Blue Wall red. Trump is the manifestation of the backlash. 

If Jesus were alive and walking the earth today as an American voter, wouldn't he support compassion for the poor, the immigrant, and the sick?  And wouldn't he be disgusted by Donald Trump?

[Note: To get daily delivery of this blog to your email go to: https://petersage.substack.com. Subscribe. Don't pay. The blog is free and always will be.]

What do Ukrainians want?

Ukrainians are war-weary and want fighting to stop.

They still support their president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The media's attention is on the leaders. Who looked weak? Who did a better job of flattering whom, Trump or Putin? What did the delegation from Europe want from Trump? Were they supplicants, or a show of force? 

Maybe the important facts are elsewhere. Trump asserted that Zelenskyy had no cards to play. The biggest card to play in a long war of attrition is the capacity and will of a country's people to carry on the fight. Ukraine is a democracy, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was elected. But since the war started, elections have been suspended, so signals from the public are clogged and indirect. In the long run -- and this war has become a long one -- public opinion matters. 

Ukrainians want the fighting to end. They want a negotiated settlement. 

Gallup poll

It doesn't mean the war will stop. Indeed, 70 percent of Ukrainians think it is unlikely.

Ukrainians have soured on the U.S. That support has steadily fallen over the course of the war.  It tracks support for continuing the war itself.

Ukrainians are losing hope of being accepted into NATO. At the beginning of the war 64 percent of Ukrainians thought Ukraine would be part of NATO within a decade. Now it is only 32 percent.

Zelenskyy remains popular in Ukraine, more popular now than when he was elected. Support for him has largely resisted erosion of support for the war he leads.

In Ukraine, he must be perceived as trying to end the war. He has an enemy that unites Ukrainians behind him. Support for Russia polls at one percent in Ukraine.

There is no easy split-the-difference, war-ending settlement available. Russia wants to end Ukrainian sovereignty. Incorporating eastern Ukraine into Russia is a starting point, not an end-goal. Russia wants to claim (they say re-claim) Ukraine. Ukraine wants to preserve its borders and survive as a sovereign state outside of Russia, tilting its defense toward NATO and its economy toward the EU. 

The polling suggests that time is not Ukraine's friend. When morale weakens, recruitment is harder and slower, soldiers are less effective, and dissent begins to rumble through a citizenry in subtle ways, then not so subtle. Voices call for peace.

Trump said Zelenskyy must sue for peace because he has weak cards to play. Zelenskyy appears resolute. His cards had included the support of his people for the war. That card may have been trumped by time, events, and the policy choices of the U.S. president. Trump wants to give Russia a win and to claim credit for bringing peace. He wants that Nobel peace prize.

[Note: To get daily delivery of this blog to your email go to: https://petersage.substack.com. Subscribe. Don't pay. The blog is free and always will be.]

Trump and Epstein. The issue is not going away.

Trump biographer Michael Wolff to Jeffrey Epstein: 

     "How do you know all this?"

Epstein reply:  

     "I was Donald's closest friend for 10 years."

Michael Wolff says he has 100 hours of tape recordings with Jeffrey Epstein. Wolff quotes Epstein relating stories of that friendship. It includes a story of Trump taking a woman to the Egyptian Room of an Atlantic City casino. Epstein said Trump emerged, saying "‘It was great. The only thing I really like to do is f--- the wives of my best friends. That is just the best.'"  Epstein describes Trump as a sexual scoundrel and predator.

There is a lot of smoke. Trump is covering up the smoke, which makes it look like there is fire. Why so ham-handed a coverup? Even Republican MAGA people think it looks weird, which is why Fox News barely covers it.

Rick Millward isn't a conspiracy nut; he is a Democrat who watches the news. He represents what may be a broad group of citizens -- enough to move election results -- who aren't satisfied with the evasions. They are an involuntary part of a jury pool, a pool of public opinion. Their curiosity has been piqued.  Rick Millward is a singer, songwriter, and music producer who has moved to the Rogue Valley by way of Nashville. His music is available on Spotify and other streaming services.

Guest Post by Rick Millward

When You're A Star


It’s occurred to me that short of video evidence or a confession, it will be impossible to know with absolute certainty why Trump, after promising to release the Epstein investigation records, has now refused to make them public. No matter how credible witness testimony may be, and even if there are many accusers, his denials will shield him. The denials will be enough for those who choose to believe him when he says he knew nothing of Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell’s crimes.

So we have to be content with circumstantial evidence. Let’s run over it again:
1 -- “When you’re a star they let you do anything” - Trump 2005
2 -- cheated on his wives - Karen McDougal affair
3 -- dressing room peeping at teen pageant
4 -- Stacey Williams groping incident
5 -- 27 other allegations of sexual harassment and/or assault
6  -- E. Jean Carroll jury finding of guilty of sexual abuse and defamation
7 -- Stormy Daniels payoff to hide affair
8 -- “Likes them on the younger side” - reference to Epstein
9 -- 15-year Epstein social relationship with Trump
10 -- “my best friend for 10 years” - Epstein statement
11 -- calendar girl pageant in 1991
12  --The Birthday Card to Epstein (WSJ story)
13 -- “theft” of girl from Mar-A-Lago
14 -- offered reporters a list of Epstein associates
15 -- Ghislaine Maxwell prison transfer - hints at a pardon

These facts, among others, suggest what we know is the tip of an iceberg; a decades long story of associations, business and social, with Epstein at the center. It’s not hard to believe that he cultivated relationships with wealthy and powerful people for cover. The entire story is rife with mystery, and if you choose to delve into it, you find many more questions than answers. For instance, why didn’t the Biden administration address the issue? The speculation is that Democrats were involved, and this allowed Republicans to use it against them. One has to wonder why such charged allegations, against both Democrats and Republicans, weren't made and answered. It looks like a political calculation that the truth is so terrible that taking the heat for hiding it would cause less damage to one or more party.

During Trump’s first term, Epstein was arrested for the second time.

In August 2019, after Epstein's death, Trump retweeted a post that alleged Bill Clinton was connected to Epstein's death.

When asked about his retweet in an interview, Trump said "What we're saying is we want an investigation. I want a full investigation, and that's what I absolutely am demanding. That's what our attorney general -- our great attorney general -- is doing." The attorney general at the time was Bill Barr. 

Pressed further on if he really believed the Clintons were involved, Trump didn't shut it down.

"I have no idea," he said, but encouraged further questions. Trump said on ABC News: 

So you have to ask: Did Bill Clinton go to the island? That's the question. If you find that out, you're going to know a lot.

(Coincidentally, Bill Barr’s father was headmaster at the school where Epstein taught in the 70s. However, like so many aspects of this story there is uncertainty about whether they knew each other.)

The question raised here is: If Trump was willing to make these statements, where is the investigation? And now, we see stonewalling and distractions, so much so that now, even if the documents are made public, there is reasonable doubt that they will have been scrubbed, and therefore useless.

The definition of circumstantial evidence is: "A jury can convict a defendant based solely on circumstantial evidence. Circumstantial evidence, while not directly proving guilt, can be used to infer guilt if it leads a jury to conclude beyond a reasonable doubt that the defendant committed the crime.” 

If I were on a jury, and in a way we all are in the court of public opinion, I would convict. Would you?

 

[Note: To get daily delivery of this blog to your email go to: https://petersage.substack.com. Subscribe. Don't pay. The blog is free and always will be.]

Easy Sunday: A reason for Democrats to have hope

The 2026 midterm elections will be a referendum on Trump.

Do Americans trust Trump, or do Americans think he needs to be reined in?

The chart below is from Bruce Mehlman's Age of Disruption, a substack newsletter. You can subscribe to his once-a-week Sunday post. It is free. https://brucemehlman.substack.com

The chart below is busy, but it makes sense if readers reflect on what they remember about "wave" elections and presidential approval. House seats won or lost measured against presidential approval:

Look at 2010 at the top. President Barack Obama (blue) had just squeaked through passage of the ACA. It was complicated, and the rollout was rocky. Democrats lost 60-plus House seats. The blue 1994 election was the public's reaction to the Hillary Clinton-led initiative on health care. Gerald Ford pardoned Nixon prior to the 1974 midterm election; it was a wave election for Democrats.  Look at the lower right on the graph. George Bush was popular after the 9/11 attack. Republicans gained seats. 

Bill Clinton was popular amid New Gingrich's attacks on him in 1998, also a year where the incumbent president gained seats. There is a warning in this one. If it were to appear that Democrats were the prime mover in politics -- the way that Gingrich's Republicans looked in 1998 -- then Democrats might not gain seats. But that won't happen; Trump insists on being Mr. Dominant in every arena of government. 

Trump likes the Rambo image. That is a fatal mistake in the midterms, and he is making it.  

A president worries the public by moving boldly to address a problem. People see implementation problems. They decide the executive is handling things poorly. They vote to check him by removing his congressional enablers. 

There is no way to unwind immigration in the U.S. without making people unhappy. There is no way to implement tariffs without creating bottlenecks and higher prices. People will lose their Medicaid. American voters want change, but they already are unhappy with the disruption that change brings. 

I am optimistic about the Democrats' chances in 2026.

[Note: To get daily delivery of this blog to your email go to: https://petersage.substack.com. Subscribe. Don't pay. The blog is free and always will be.]

AOL ends dial-up.

Amidst everything going on in the world, take a moment.

It would exhaust me to list all the serious matters I could be addressing in today's blog. So much news. So little time.

So let's just skip it this morning.

AOL is shutting down its legacy dial-up service. That set me off on a revery about "bittersweet," and then to sweet and sour candy. Some things in life are simultaneously unpleasant and pleasant. I liked Red Hot candy in my childhood.

Stores sell a variety of sweet-and-sour-themed candy. Candy I bought in Mexico combines sweet and fiery hot. The conflicting tastes grab our attention.

We get that same frisson from sounds, too.

The robot-screech sound of dial-up internet was memorable because it was unpleasant, even while it triggered a sense of satisfaction and relief. It was a good/bad sound. Dial-up was glitchy and uncertain. Sometimes it took multiple tries to get a connection. But when we heard that dial-up screech we knew we were "in." Whew. Here is 13 seconds of it. Remember?

Click

I enjoyed being a parent of an infant. A crying baby is simultaneously jarring but reassuring. The baby is alive and well, healthy lungs calling for attention. It's another example of good/bad. Biology saw to it that my ears were attuned to respond.

Here is something I recorded at home. I used it briefly as a ring tone for my phone, but even at low volume it drew too much attention. It stopped conversation. Here are 17 seconds of it, but you don't need to listen to the end:

Click

My mind races with analogies to the politics of this moment, with its rewards for the attention-getting sounds that stimulate our ganglia. But it is a weekend so I am going to let it go. I will just reflect that AOL dial-up is gone and the baby has grown up. I'm a little bit sad about that. The moving finger writes, and having writ, moves on.

[Note: To get daily delivery of this blog to your email go to: https://petersage.substack.com. Subscribe. Don't pay. The blog is free and always will be.]